A key indicator of a recession flashed a warning light two years ago. That metric once had a perfect record, but there hasn't been a crash yet. Our colleagues at The Indicator From Planet Money, ...

Two years ago, the yield curve inverted. That means short-term interest rates on Treasury bonds were unusually higher than long-term interest rates. When that's happened in the past, a recession has ...

The inverted yield curve is one of the more reliable recession indicators. I discussed it at length last December. At that point, we had not yet seen a full inversion. Now we have, and it appears the ...

My last analysis on Cohen & Steers Infrastructure Fund (UTF) was published about 3 months, in early January 2025. That article was titled “UTF: Time To Take Some Profit (Rating Downgrade).” That ...

The yield curve has long been a closely watched indicator of economic health. When the yield curve inverts, meaning short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, it is often seen as a harbinger of ...

As explained in Prof. Robert Jarrow's book cited below, forward rates contain a risk premium above and beyond the market's expectations for the 3-month forward rate. We document the size of that risk ...

Two years ago, the yield curve inverted. That means short-term interest rates on Treasury bonds were unusually higher than long-term interest... Can the yield curve still predict recessions? Two years ...